The California Earthquake Watch I issued for August 10th through the 20th had a magnitude 4.4 in Anza, however recent trends are showing the state is becoming unstable once again to issue another 10-day watch.
The fault-stress model was elevated for a few days and we just started getting more frequent smaller quakes in the Anza areas. Now here’s not to say that other areas surrounding Southern California will not go off because it’ll either be Anza again or in the nearby fault-systems across the region.
Geomagnetic field conditions seem to be low at the moment so whatever pops will be developed from the Anza activity, which is highly elevated once again. These smaller quakes are not releasing any stress. In fact.. they are building it as they shove stress into another area of the fault as they go off one by one.
The SCWF Fault Stress Model (pictured above) is showing the trend-line maintaining upwards and the predictive (not shown) is maintaining this value for tomorrow’s update.
This watch will go from now till October 6th for the state of California.
Prediction success rate is about 95% at the current time, getting an offshore 5 mag and Trabuco Canyon 4.0 at the beginning of this year, and the 4.4 Anza quake in August 2018.
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