9/29/2018 Hurricane Rosa and Parent Cutoff Low Forecast Into Southern California


I will be taking off today and resuming work on Sunday to monitor the storm for the day with only this one update. The image has color values … Here is what it means.  Read on for details …

Red – Rosa’s impacts will be center in the far eastern forecast area as initially expected with track number 2. There are still some values wanting it a bit further west so again this is why I am taking today to monitor it.

Yellow – Mid-level moisture out ahead of Rosa on Sunday will overspread the region’s San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Mountains. With daytime heating there is the chance of shower or thunderstorm activity similar to our ‘monsoon season locations’.

Light blue – Iffy spot. This will be between the effects of Rosa and the cutoff system to the west. This could be a ‘dry slot’ between them if trends remain the same with today’s numbers. I have not issued a flood watch for the Holy Fire areas but it will be monitored in-case I do. This blue area’s dynamics will depend all on the final track of Rosa and the parent cutoff system to the west. It is the lowest confidence area of my forecast this go around on details.

Green – LA westward would be under the influence of the cutoff system moving in from the west. Enough moisture tap will bring a true frontal zone into these areas with the chance of rain/thunderstorm activity .. some of which some areas in either SBA/VT/or Santa Clarita could see a bout of ‘heavier’ rainfall along this front on Tuesday.

So .. we are still a bit away from the system and I will return on Sunday with better details as this “cutoff low is a weatherman’s woe” – Dr. George Fischbeck

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