October 2, 2018 at 6:09 pm

Very Detailed Forecast: Cutoff Low Storm to Affect Key Areas of Southern California On Wednesday

It’s that time again.. to make the most detailed forecast for the region. The following update has been prepared for you that will highly certain areas of the forecast region in zones. It will tell you when, what type of dynamics to expect, what is possible, and even if you are getting nothing. Read on for details with the most detailed weather forecast you’ll ever read in your life and if you are new here this is what people wait for …
The satellite image is as of 6:30pm and I have overlayed it with the spots I will touch on. The cutoff low is becoming more known by me and as such forecasts will resume with it. No doubt the system will be one for the SBA/VT and some LA areas more so than OC/IE/San Diego … as was stated with the ‘confidence’ chart yesterday and the same for the graphic back on 9/29 –
This image has the overall spiral of the storm in the PIP (Picture In Picture) image. The “L” detonates the center of the system itself. I have yet to figure if I will have it Ophelia.. If this thing does have good thunderstorm dynamics by the time Wednesday morning goes around I will officially name the system OPHELIA, the first on the Southern California Weather Force‘s ongoing list from last season.

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The larger image shows the overall forecast region.

Yellow zone 1:  The ‘yellow’ boxed area is the SLO/Santa Barbara County zone, or the western SCWF Forecast zone. This zone starting after midnight, mainly just before sunrise tomorrow (Wednesday morning) will have the front moving in. The front is seen on this image out in the ocean with the cloud tops being pretty tall. This is telling me that as it hits the elevation on land these would become widespread rain showers in the yellow box.. and with some added instability on Wednesday will make for the risk of thunderstorms. Micro-climate alerts are issuing later on for the yellow area.

Green zone 2:  The green-boxed area is where we get a moisture low level southerly flow ahead of the front overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning. This will start scattered off and on showers for many of you in that zone. Some IE spots will have isolated showers as well … Short term forecasts will be updated this evening in the micro-climate products as well.  The green zone also has the risk of thunder chances, mainly the LA/OC/IE forecast area later on Wednesday with trailing activity into San Diego.  The front will NOT have a solid event where 1-2 inches is seen in one city and also a city 20 miles away. These will be highly potent cells that can drop 1-2 inches WHEREVER they cross from SBA/VT/OC/LA Counties and a quarter of an inch just 5 miles away out of the cells.  Scattered showers will remain overnight in Downtown San Diego due to the west/east flow behind the front and residual moisture into Thursday morning.

Light blue zone 3:  This area will be in the upper divergent section of the system on Wednesday, which can bring uplift for the risk of shower/thunderstorm activity just about anywhere in the area.  The activity will cease in zone 3 by around 8-9pm on Wednesday night.  The zone includes the Antelope Valley, Kern Deserts (EDWARDS AFB), Metro High Desert, and Barstow.

Dark-blue zone 4:  The screw-zone.  The screw-zone is the zone at which the dynamics of the system are poorly placed and that activity will happen all around you.. but in your area in hit and miss fashion.  You could see something close.. or not at all.  Hard to forecast zone.
Magenta zone 5:  This is an interesting area.  By the afternoon/evening on Wednesday the Eastern Deserts may light up in a true light show, with numerous thunderstorms.. even being severe with damaging winds, larger hail, frequent lightning, and even the risk of isolated tornadoes.  The most concentration of this activity will be along I-40 from Ludlow to Needles.  Photography opportunities arise in this cluster later Wednesday.

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