October 6, 2018 at 11:25 am

Inside Slider Brushes Southern California Through Tonight; Phoenix Metro Tornado Risks Elevated

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An inside slider that will brush the North and Northeastern Southern California forecast area has prompted my thunderstorm watch and my stern warning for Phoenix, Arizona residents for the risk of tornadoes in the metro areas overnight tonight so read on for details.

An extremely potent inside slider has just missed our metro areas by 200 miles to our northeast and has prompted my Thunderstorm Watch in the northeast forecast areas of the Northern Kern Mountains/Deserts … San Bernardino County Deserts, including the Fort Irwin, Ludlow, Stateline, and the Needles forecast area.  A very potent trough is sinking southward in an inside slider fashion.  This trough has very strong upper jet profiles with it and will up the divergence (lift) later this afternoon/evening. This, with instability; will create numerous thunderstorms in the zones listed above.  The thunderstorms may be severe at times and contain wind gusts of 40-60 mph as they move east-southeastward through the watch area. If you are heading to Phoenix you may want to check the thunderstorm model I updated in the member section because it is showing an area of tornado dynamics in the metro.

Yes, tornado dynamics.  The model is pegging the Gulf Of California to bring a warm southerly flow at the surface, acting like the Gulf of Mexico does for the southern states.  This will merge with the strong lifting associated by the frontal zone moving into the region overnight tonight and both air-masses will merge over the Phoenix area, igniting many severe thunderstorms from Prescott, Wickenburg, and the Phoenix metro area.  All residents in the Phoenix metro areas need to take precautions for severe weather.  Thunderstorms will extend all the way through Northern Arizona as well so travels on Interstates 40 and 17 must be met with caution.

Countdown to Phoenix metro area Severe Thunderstorm Event (Timing is 1am – 5am 10/7/2018)

-2062Days -7Hours -56Minutes -7Seconds

Gusty winds will persist this evening into Sunday for our mountain and desert regions, including some 30 mph gusts for areas around the Santa Clarita Valley.

Rain model in the member section shows most of the precipitation being in the mountain/foothill areas, including nearby cities to them in the Kern/Gorman, LA/SBD/RIV/San Diego foothill/mountain areas.  Less precipitation will occus the further from the mountains you are.  Sunday will have left over off and on showers in IE/San Diego areas.

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