Major Pacific Storm Xavier has been finalized as a high-end category five system on the1-6 scale regardless of the flooding that happened. It lacked severe thunderstorm and tornado dynamics to be the highest. The storm left behind destruction that will take a long time to clean up. The system was pegged here at Southern California Weather Force since late January, with warnings of it a week in advance for the detailed aspect. Read on for more on the evolution of the forecast and what is to come over the weekend with a cold arctic system …
On January 29th, 2019 I released the February 2019 forecast. This forecast stated; “Based on what I am seeing in my numbers, the beginning of the month is still projected to bring nearly half that rainfall forecast. We have breaks in-between and I want to say we will get yet another pattern by mid-month so watch those Valentine’s Day forecasts. Now after the 20th or around there, it seems like yet another break before we get some systems in toward the end week of the month. Quite literally this next month’s forecast has very little break periods and a persistent area of low pressure that would keep the onshore flow and a lack of major ridging over the area for moisture to continue pumping in.. even if it is light rain at times.” You can find all that wording by clicking here to that article.
On February 7, 2019, I issued the warning to prepare for an Atmospheric River event, otherwise known as the Pineapple Express pattern. Within the alert, the snow levels would be over the resorts and thus would create major flooding down the mountain slopes due to melting snow. It would rush into the creeks and rage the Santa Ana River as well. Click Here For That Article.
Then today came and left a trail of destruction. Highway 243 in Idyllwild was wiped away and all roads leading in an out of the city were in such bad condition that residents in the city were living on ‘an island’ in the middle of the mountains. Many pictures have poured into the Southern California Weather Force Facebook Page.
So what’s next?
On Friday we will have a front move through the area, bringing with it a ripple effect of fronts for off and on showers. The snow level will be just above 5,000 FT, for the most part, bringing it down near 4,500 FT Friday evening/early night for the LA/SBD Mountains and under 4,000 FT for the Gorman Pass (Grapevine area for some snowfall there. I will assess the snow forecast on Friday morning and issue the proper alerts when needed so those of you on the premium supporters micro-climate e-mail list will receive them.
On Sunday we have an even colder system for snow levels down to 3,000 FT. This would bring some snowfall to the High Desert zones with another round of precipitation. Low-level wind dynamics rounding Point Conception (Vandenberg zones) will bring gusty west winds with it for Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego County, and the Inland Empire areas to surrounding mountains. The system will be enough to obtain a category and name, which the next name is a Y. The Z name has been changed to Zordon, which would be after the break. After Zordon, we will enter the next A-Z list based on your votes on the main Facebook Page. The list will be announced shortly.
As for the medium/long range… as per the February 2019 forecast with the link above, a break is expected and then we will enter another storm pattern sometime after February 23rd.
As always, stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for further details.
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