Heat, Then Average, Then A Burst Of Monsoonal Moisture By End Month With September Having Hurricane Connections Into California


Everything seems to be going pretty well with the previous forecasts for the coming heat this mid-week and a cool-down through the end week into the weekend with the ridge breaking down once again.  By the end of the month, we start to see some changes so read on for details …

Temperatures will be on the rise through this mid-week as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead.  Going with 100 in the Inland areas and as hot as 115-118F in the Low Deserts for the coming couple of days surrounding Wednesday and Thursday.  The ridge will break-down by the end of the week, sending temperatures a good 10-15 degrees down from where they will be on Wednesday and Thursday.

This is called a see-saw pattern.  We usually only see this in the Fall, however with this odd Summer we are having we are seeing this now.  This is because the jet stream is actually stronger than usual across the northern parts of the United States.  This strength is breaking the ridge down when it tries to form.  This is reminding me of starting a car.  You can hear it trying to start (the ridge trying to form) only for it to not turn the engine over (ridge established for weeks).  This is the best analogy I can give on what is going on in the atmosphere this season.

But, this may actual favor our area for above average rainfall in September.  September 1st marks Meteorological Fall.  Astronomical Fall is usually around September 21st and relies on the Sun’s position.  Meteorological Fall is more accurate and represents when weather patterns actually change for that season.  Meteorological Fall is September 1st, Winter is December 1st, Spring is March 1st, and Summer is June 1st.  As we close in on September 1st, we hit Meteorological Fall and sometime just before it; on my birthday of August 29th or around there, the atmosphere will start to respond.

Hurricanes forming south of Baja, Mexico would use the troughs that we have been seeing this Summer as a guide to stop moving east to west and actually be sucked up and curve northward towards California.  In doing so, both upper dynamics and moisture from dying hurricanes would up the precipitation chances across the state.  This type of pattern we are seeing this month may transform to what I just talked about and September could get pretty interesting.

So there you have it, a see-saw pattern with heat coming up

As always, stay tuned to official forecasts from Southern California Weather Force for updates …

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