September 2019 Outlook, El Nino or La Nina, A Volcanic Eruption, and a Look At The Coming Season Preliminary Pattern



Alright welcome to Southern California Weather Force. First off I’ll dig into the weekend. Weekend has a ridge building in ahead of a monsoonal flow. This ridge will push inland temperatures to over 100 degrees, seeing Riverside at 105 or higher given heat index from humidity as well. So yes, prepare for it to get hotter with the coming pattern.

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Well, my preliminary estimations are still that we will have a neutral season. That means neither El Nino or La Nina. Last season we had a Moderate El Nino. We should be sitting at neither and this does create very interesting scenarios that I am following. Season’s that typically were neutral had much better predictable storm events and some of these had low elevation snow at that. So this season in my preliminary does look like it will be a mixed bag of events from severe thunderstorms, lightning events, flooding, good mountain snow, and even low elevation snow events. Last season my forecast called for warmer and wetter than average. This was correct as we were above normal for rainfall and above normal in temperatures with that moderate El Nino. Given what I see, I may finalize this by October 15th or 25th with both a cold and warm season and a rainy one.

A volcano in Russia has erupted within the last week. This volcano has pushed a gas plume up to 70,000 FT. This type of pattern is what I said controls our weather patterns, not humans. SO2, or Sulfur Dioxide within the upper levels does reflect sun-rays back out into space and thus cooling things down and even altering the upper level jet stream.

Wind is the change in temperatures, and with that change in the Polar Jet Stream this next season, with the volcano being directly under it on the eruption now, we will see some very interesting patterns this Fall.

Starting with September. This next month will have what I call a shooting gallery effect. The shooting gallery effect is where our state of California has a trough to the west in the Pacific Ocean and a number of hurricanes come close to the region and the moisture and dynamics would get sucked into the region and provide the needed dynamics for shower and thunderstorm activity. I see this happening even as far north as Sacramento, Redding, Crescent City, and the San Francisco Bay area, in addition to our region of Southern California and east to Las Vegas and all of Arizona. It’ll be directly opposite of the month of August we have experienced, which usually has most of our monsoon activity. We are behind at least a month in nominal weather patterns.

So there we go, still looking at an interesting month ahead along with a positive thrown into the system, the volcanic eruption this month. Neither La Nina or El Nino is forecast from my future numbers so stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force.

As always, stay tuned to official forecasts from Southern California Weather Force for updates …

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