December 3, 2019 at 5:34 pm

Detailed Forecast: Pacific Storm Felix – Category Three On Wednesday Across Southern California Zones


Pacific Storm Felix will hit as a category three at the center of the most dynamics across parts of Southern California.  The SCWF Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for some of you as well as Flood, Winter Weather, and Ocean Weather Alerts.  Read on for those details and see zoomed in SCWF models.

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The rain is moving in as we speak and the low-levels will moisten as the night goes along into Wednesday and more and more rain will fall.  All the SCWF model images are below.  A Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Southern SLO County … Kern Mountain/Valley/Southern Desert … Western Antelope Valley … SCV/SFV … Ventura County … Malibu … Santa Barbara County …Pacific Storm Felix will come into the region overnight tonight, starting the warm front sweeping across the area.  The target for convective thunderstorm activity will be for Wednesday, starting in the morning.  This will sweep the warm/cold-front interacting line through the area and this will provide the needed instability for thunderstorms to erupt in the watch area.  The watch means that you either will get one overhead or be 10 miles from a lightning strike in the zoned areas.  Storm activity will move from south to north in the tropical-flow.  The SCWF Thunderstorm Forecast Model output is below.

A SCWF Flood Warning and Watch has been issued for Western SLO/SBA Coast … Northern Kern Valleys and Lake Isabella … Northeast SBD Deserts including Las Vegas … Eastern VT County … LA County, not including Deserts … OC to IE … Cajon Pass … San Diego County … Coachella Valley to Morongo Basin …Pacific Storm Felix is due into Southern California lightly overnight tonight and gaining steam Wednesday morning through the early evening hours when it will disperse.  The tropical moisture fetch from this system will target all areas of the region, however the Flood Warning alert is for most of San Diego County, north to the Santa Ana Mountains and into some of the Inland Empire zones, east to the Coachella Valley and Morongo Basin areas.  This is where the core of the higher rainfall rates for flooding will happen and if you want to see the maps for that, check on below.  Some areas in the warning will have 2-3″ of rainfall on my model.  As for other areas, just check the maps below for your area on the maps.

A SCWF Special Marine Statement is in effect for the entire bight region …Pacific Storm Felix is due into Southern California lightly overnight tonight and gaining steam Wednesday morning through the early evening hours when it will disperse.  The tropical moisture fetch from this system will target all areas of the region with showers and thunderstorms.  Use the map below for the SCWF Rainfall Forecast.  Waves are expected to be the highest with 6-8′ expected for the OC/San Diego Coastal zones with this storm system with a stronger southwesterly low-level wind flow …

This is a mixed-bag system with thunderstorms are possible as far as OC/IE but mainly centering Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern areas.  The Flood Risk is detached and is centered in the warm sector of the IE, and San Diego County areas, stretching northeast from there to the Coachella Valley/Morongo Basin areas.

More rain is expected in hit and miss fashion over the weekend.  Will report on that after Felix.

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