Storm System Moves Out Of Southern California Tonight; Stronger Alaskan Storm Pattern Beginning March Being Monitored


The storm system that peppered the region with hit and miss shower and thunderstorm activity today, with the most hitting San Diego County, will move out overnight tonight and a brief break will be expected before my calculations show a more potent storm pattern by March 1st, which could very well disrupt NASCAR Sunday at the Autoclub 400 and the monitoring of this system has begun so read on for details.

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This system was a very tough one because it was hit and miss.  There were no convergence zones because the low-level winds were weak due to the cold-core being directly overhead.  Given this, it just isn’t possible to zone in on who will get what.  But… further away from the center of the upper level low in San Diego County it was much easier to call for that area having the most rainfall from this system and this is what happened all the way north to Yucaipa.  The SCWF Rain Model issued the day before it hit (Click Here To View) was the pinnacle of the forecast.

This system is bringing in a northwest flow tonight and off and on shower activity will be expected early, with most of it hanging into San Diego County through at least very early morning Sunday with the onshore flow and upslope activity.  The real kicker is NASCAR Weekend.  As I stated a few days ago or so at Southern California Weather Force Facebook, this would be a monitoring weekend because while just before it with practice runs looks good, the actual race day on Sunday does have a higher than normal number on my calculations for a trough of low pressure to be in the area.  Given the California Speedway is in Fontana, the onshore flow and upslope from any low pressure system would bring rainfall in should trends continue.

We have not reached my 2019-2020 Pacific Storm Season rainfall forecast of 9-13″ just yet as we are just shy of 8″ right now, so we are due for a larger storm pattern in March.  It just is a bit worrisome it has to target race day Sunday.  I have not bought my ticket all this month as a result of these numbers so whether I am correct or not, to me it was the right decision given I am usually more right than wrong in the long range.

The system centering NASCAR Weekend will be the start of an actual storm pattern for March so more storms will happen after that in a close proximity

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