February 28, 2020 at 5:06 pm

Slider System To Move Over Southern California on Sunday, Five SCWF Custom Micro-Climate Alerts Issued For Various Zones

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A storm system known as a slider system will move in out of the northwest.  The track of the center will ultimately depend on what exactly this will do but I am leaning towards it moving directly over Southern California during this period and it will bring a mix of things from rain to snow levels of 3,000 FT or so in various spots.  Read on for details on the five current alerts I have issued so far.

Let’s start with the alerts.  On February 26th I issued the Special Marine Statement alert for this event for the bight (island) zones of Southern California (Click here to read) – It reads; A Pacific Storm will move over the area this weekend.  The high waves and gusty winds of 35-50 mph out of the west will impact the Channel Islands, waters/coast of Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo County by Saturday, spreading east to Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego County, including Catalina and San Clemente Islands by Sunday. These conditions are dangerous and small crafts are urged to not go out during this period, especially on Sunday.  This is still valid.


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Today I went ahead and got four more alerts out.  The first alert was the Blowing Dust Advisory for all desert areas.  Click here to read it and it reads; A slider system coming through the region will generate strong onshore flow through the desert locations on Saturday, maximizing on Sunday.  Gusts will range from 35 to 50 mph and in some areas stronger at times.  Because of the lack of rain over the past period, the wind gusts will be strong enough for blowing sand and dust, which can and will reduce visibility.  Use the wind model images below and remember the key, the intensity 4 and higher level is for blowing dust.  High profile vehicles are urged to re-route around I-8 between Boulevard and Ocotillo on Sunday with intensity level 6 showing up.

NOTE:  ALL SCWF WIND INTENSITY SCALE MODELS ARE BELOW THIS WRITE-UP FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  All micro-climate alerts can be delivered by e-mail (100 percent) or joining a FB micro-climate group.  Choose one by clicking here.

The second and third was a hybrid alert for parts of the Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County areas.  It was a High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory hybrid.  Click here to read it and it reads; A slider system will move near the area on Saturday out of the north.  Onshore gradients will bring 30-40 mph wind gusts to the SLO/Vandenberg Coastal areas.  These winds will strengthen on Sunday, affecting Santa Barbara, Ventura , and Los Angeles County’s advisory zones.  If you notice the different color shade for Ventura proper … that is for Ventura/Oxnard and that is the SCWF High Wind Warning.  That very small area should get near 50 mph in wind gusts from onshore so if you live in Ventura and Oxnard you will notice these wind gusts on Sunday.  Use the SCWF wind gust intensity model below for your area.

The last was for the mountains concerning the chance of snow and high winds at times.  It was the lesser Winter Weather Watch, which would indicate a possible Winter Weather Advisory upgrade.  Click here to read it and it reads; A slider system will move into the area on Sunday, maximizing on Sunday night, and leaving through Monday.  The snow level and areas of strongest impact will be determine by which way this upper level low moves over.  If way offshore then very little amounts, but if directly overhead then we could see all mountain zones above 3,000 FT have some snow.  So this is for all mountain and pass areas for 3,000 feet and higher for the risk of some snow later Sunday into Monday, main accumulations Sunday night.  The Los Angeles and San Bernardino County Mountains stand the best chance at seeing the most snow from all mountain areas. The Winter Weather Watch means that conditions are favorable for any kind of snowfall in the zone areas.  I could add some High Desert areas if I wanted to now but I’ll wait a bit till the storm shows where it really will go.  Expect an update on Sunday before any snow begins to fall.  Gusty winds will hit each area during the allotted time.

The agenda for this system is to find out which track will be right.  Some numbers show well offshore and missing us while some directly overhead.  The dynamics for this system will be scattered.  Very much like the last one, some of you will not see a drop while some of you get hit pretty good.  It is again the roll of the dice in Southern California’s micro-climates.

NASCAR Sunday – As with the previous video, I still think some rain will be hit and miss with a chance of thunderstorms 10 miles from the track.  It won’t be a major frontal zone and never was … but if one of these hit and miss cells moves directly overhead, it will cause a delay in the race.  Hit and miss cells are not predictable in an upper system like this that lacks a true frontal zone for pegging times, but as the afternoon/evening moves along and the system gets closer, chances of precipitation are on the rise.  The NASCAR Weather Center (Click Here) will handle updates for Auto Club 400 if you wish to follow it and other races.

A Santa Ana Wind Pattern will develop on Monday.  Alerts and wind models will be issued accordingly over the micro-climate notification system and FB micro-climate groups.

Medium/Long Range numbers CONTINUE to show what they have since the beginning of February and even back in January.  March should have a good amount of rainfall and as we near the 9th-10th time-frame … it will be apparent.  I will continue to update you as much as I can before then.

6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone

5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.

4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult.  BLOWING DUST CRITERIA if in an area known for blowing dust.

3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD during any high fire risk. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA

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