On May 9th, 2020 I issued a La Nina Watch. I stated that “Other agencies expect this to be a hiccup and that we will likely see a neutral season coming up, which is neither La Nina or El Nino. However, trends on my calculations are certainly showing up as much stronger of a La Nina signal and this will happen as early as this Summer as cold water up-welling occurs west of South America with a weakening of the trade winds.” – This watch is now my advisory so read on for details …
Summer 2020 as a result would have far more Atlantic Hurricanes and fewer Pacific Hurricanes. What that means for us is that the lack of Pacific Hurricanes would keep the pressure systems from developing.
However the position I expected the monsoon ridge to be in may actually make us in Southern California have an average and even below average monsoon season. We would need to rely on moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to be sucked westward into our region with the increased Atlantic Hurricanes I expect. This is a long-shot and most of the moisture as a a result will stop in Arizona and curve into Utah and Nevada.
As for the Winter Season, a Strong La Nina in my forecast means a much colder winter to come so after this coming ‘Summer’ many may welcome the cold again.
All that so far from the previous La Nina Watch in May is coming true. The season is very similar to last year with the exception of the lack of close tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific south of us. The troughs that are building in as well at times may actually help to bring cutoff systems into the area toward the end of Summer, which is similar to last season. Preliminary August forecast projections are for another above normal temperature month and a below normal monsoon flow. More of the same, much like this month has been. Areas with normal temperatures will remain along the coastal zones, where heatwaves are not expected to affect you.
La Nina is being monitored as La Nina typically brings our worst Santa Ana Wind Events …
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