La Nina Continues To Strengthen; Concerning Warm Spot West Of California For Drier Air Shows Signs Of Growth


La Nina does continue to strengthen and I believe it will peak around December or so before slowly coming back down.  The warm area in the image for this article (circled in magenta) is concerning to me so read on for details.

The concerning spot is circled in this article and this is an area of warmer water just to our west.  The area of warm water stretching from Hawaii goes to the Pacific Northwest, which means the storm pattern of recent will impact there, one such larger system hits over this weekend for Oregon and Washington, with some of Northern California in the mix.  The warm spot however is what deflected a lot of the storms in the Super El Nino of 2015-2016 that failed to materialize in what was called the Martin El Nino Anomaly.  Seeing this shows that we will have a good amount of deflection away from Southern California over the next month or so.  This is typical of a stronger La Nina so it does not surprise me there.

Furthermore, seeing strong fronts hit up north on deflection while we get the tail-end charlie (southern end of the fronts) in this pattern makes me think my original preliminary assessment for this season of a below normal – average season is pretty close and that the closer we get to the mid/end part of this month, the final forecast will be released.  I do not however at this time think we have a wet season like the 2010-2011 La Nina gave us.  The atmosphere is not boding well.  It however is still in my projection to be a colder than normal season.

WAVES – Wave activity will be on the ‘rise’ as we hit this weekend.  This is due to the westerly swell from storm fronts missing mainly to our north.  If any of these fronts give us a tail-end charlie scenario, I’ll jump right back on and notify, but for now… we remain mostly dry in the extended with a see-saw pattern of warm/hot and then average/cool etc until Halloween when things start to change going into November.

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