Southern California’s Heatwaves End By End Month Until Next Spring; Model Grid Output Confirms; Brief Look Into November


The moment you have been waiting for and for me to see on my grid model output for high temperatures, an end of the heatwave level temperatures is upon Southern California.  What’s next?  Read more for details …

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The image in the article is what is called a high temperature grid model I produce.  It shows possible outcomes based on a tweak of my temperature algorithm.  The hotter colors (reds) are for heatwave level status and the cooler colors (blue/gold) are for colder temperatures for forecast highs.  As you can see, the ‘NOW’ section has the current heatwave we are having.  By Halloween we are starting to see blues and golds peak through, and by November we are seeing no heatwave level projections and only the blues and golds.  This marks this heatwave the very last one of the 2020 season and we can be glad for that one.

Now what about the next month?  As shown to my page supporters at Southern California Weather Force, the pie chart for October’s forecast had majority dry weather in the forecast.  This is all a custom algorithm I develop for forecasts a month out.

November 2020 preliminary forecast pattern chart is much different. You can see that by combining the trace and 0.25″ its around a 36% chance of a bone dry month… and combining the blue/green its around a 44% so a bit higher.. but not by much. When factoring in the yellow you get around 64% so preliminary it is telling me that while not a slam dunk, there will be several systems to come. Blocking is also starting to be seen over Alaska in the next week or so … so as I said before.. storms are not far behind.
I will say that last year around this time, the chart was much rainier for November so while last year was way above average for November, we will see below those limits and closer to average as a result of this.
The final forecast will be out within the week or 10 days on how the season will unfold.. but seeing these numbers on my charts is a good indication we are close.

Halloween will also mark the end of the heatwave values seen as of recent …
I am still monitoring that cutoff low to move towards California by the 21st but not be into the area till maybe around the 24-26th time-frame (?) –

Yesterday evening I issued a Fog Advisory (Click here to read that) over the micro-climate e-mail alert system.  If you are on that premium system then you got it.  This morning, I checked the model compared to my alert and it wasn’t too bad.  We had dense fog in San Diego, Long Beach, Buena Park, and some of the LA Basin where the model said it would be.   Patchy fog likely only for the Southern LA Basin tonight, not like it was this morning.   So in essence the fog model did extremely well in issuing the alert beforehand so that is fully calibrated for the season as well, which should help greatly in the mountain passes.

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