Next Storm System On Scope; Confidence Rising In Next Storm System Into Southern California Last Full Week Of December


To go an entire December without rain is a rare thing to have for Los Angeles, only happening four times in the last 150 years.  But, systems are starting to respond to a now weakening La Nina that will allow them to finally reach Los Angeles where the last measurable precipitation was early November so read on for details …

A Flood Watch was issued a couple of days ago at the National Weather Force, the national equivalent to Southern California Weather Force.  This is showing that a strong arctic jet is in progress across the West Coast.  As a response to a strong jet, cutoff lows would form in reason south of there, which is between here and Hawaii.  One such cutoff is expected around Christmas Eve in the area, followed by the actual storm system between December 26th and the 30th, before the New Year.   This will would be dragged in by the Christmas Even cutoff system.

Mean precipitation for Los Angeles is showing up between 30 calculations at a half-inch of rain.  This is the median number, which means it can be above that if the system hits on the stronger side.  Regardless, as I stated in the December 2020 forecast, Christmas will feel like Christmas with cold air in place and of course storm dynamics in play.  It looks on track and my confidence this far out is moderate/high.  I will continue to monitor the region, including that cutoff system for Christmas Eve over the next several days and update accordingly.

This could be the sign we are looking for.  A weakening La Nina to moderate levels along with cooling waters northeast of Hawaii to diminish the surface ridge that has been holding storms out.  Our most active months will be early 2021.

As always, stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for official forecasts and updates on weather across Southern California

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