January 2021’s forecast went as expected with a lull in the pattern until the last 10 days of the month with a couple of arctic blasts in the area. What will February 2021 be like? Read on for details …
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February 2021 looked to start with storms into the area the first week of the month, however part of me didn’t feel it would actually happen. Teleconnections either showed Western United States storms (Santa Ana Winds) or storms down our coast for more rain/snowfall into California. So what I am seeing is I need to follow the pattern. Even all global models had storms on January 26th for the long-range first week of February so you can already tell you cannot trust any long-range models this month.
All NOAA models at the current time show zero rain for February, with ridging being the main deal. But, I digress, as I just said we cannot trust those models that far out so we have to stick to the trend we are in. We are in a 3-week storm pattern meaning the shift pattern between dry weather and stormy weather takes three weeks after the last storm hit. The pattern suggests that around Mid-February would be the start of another storm pattern.
Since this was a Super La Nina, I stated we should see above-average precipitation in California. Well, I’ll be honest here, our state took a major hit with the last one, and at the moment in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo we are running normal for this time of year, on the road to above average. But as for Los Angeles, we would need 10 more inches of rainfall in three months in order to reach that goal.
Can it be done? Yes, it can. As stated in my Fall release for the seasonal forecast that goes through Spring 2021… I am waiting for the spring jet stream to become highly erratic. This is happening as we speak and we are becoming unstuck from the winter pattern jet. A 1991-1992 season is what I was going for, which led February and March to have the strongest precipitation totals. In January 1991 we had a lot of rainfall in Los Angeles, similar to this past January. It was shaping out to be a dry year for many until February and March’s numbers came through and it sent the totals above average. This is what I will bank on. No models are correct this far out and I believe as we move through the month we will start to see that storm pattern return. So, again we wait through a lull until Mid-February, this time the pattern starting earlier than the last 10 days of the month.
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