Teleconnections are tough, and one such one I look at predicts either cold offshore winds or a storm pattern. Given it is mid-month and the offshore patterns have been fluent, the overall pattern suggests a snap back into a storm pattern within the next 10 day period starting now so read on for details.
First and foremost, there is a weak system on Saturday, probably low clouds in the LA/OC/SD areas with some light rain/drizzle and nothing more. Areas up on Gorman will see a dusting of snowfall but nothing significant.
I’ll tell you what, the systems missing to the north are giving me a headache, but I am still not throwing in the towel we can turn the season around and get some better rainfall numbers. The program with systems as of late is they favored areas in the Inland Empire more than Los Angeles or Ventura. That is because this season has hit and miss systems to our north, which is quite common for La Nina. What is not common for La Nina is to see snowfall on the level that Texas saw, along with ice storms. This record-breaking month will go down in history for that area. Even Del Rio, along the US/Mexico Border, had 11 inches of snow today. Their average is 0.1″ and sometimes none. This is equivalent to 6 inches of snowfall falling in the Downtown Los Angeles areas. So what is next for us?
Well, the same teleconnections are trying to suggest another cold pattern for lower elevation snowfall in spots within the coming couple of weeks. Anytime between now and March 5th is the target, most likely closer to the end of the month. This would send a cold air mass down into Southern California, along with the moisture dynamics. This would be our next window. After that, teleconnections are showing March to hopefully be that March Miracle I am waiting for. The atmosphere Is showing signs that it is about to snap back into position for another storm window to open, this time a lot more rain. As stated in the intro, I’m not throwing in the towel that we can make up some numbers, but I definitely should have kept my original 7-13.99″ margin for Los Angeles for this season. If we fail to see high numbers by Mid-March, this season will be in that range.
A key indicator is the Dallas, TX snow event. The numbers of the 1978 and 1964 time-frame match it. Both of those were El Ninos. As I wanted to always say is the atmosphere this season is acting more El Nino than La Nina, but largely missing us. The only thing we have seen is colder temperatures. I mean if we end up like the 2013-2014 season we will see below even that 7″ mark. I’d like not to take it in that direction given what I am seeing for March and we still have April as well.
Now, after this, the latest indications are we will be neutral next year, so neither El Nino or La Nina, which puts us in a toss-up situation where we could have a lot of rain or not much at all.
That’s it for now. My hibernation period will end towards the end of the month when you’ll hear from me again.
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