Major Pacific Storm Gavin’s Thunderstorm Dynamics To Upswing Tonight into Thursday Across Southern California; Details

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Scattered thunderstorms were recorded today, along with hail.  Major Pacific Storm GAVIN remains a category four system and the center of the storm has yet to pass.  With such a prolonged stay, the thunderstorm dynamics are about to take a widespread swing tonight into especially Thursday so read on for details …

Major Pacific Storm GAVIN seems to be behaving as forecast.  We’ve had snow up on both the Gorman and Cajon Pass today.  The instability dynamics are mostly north of San Diego through tonight.  Another batch of upper lift dynamics will move through the LA/OC/IE areas later tonight, probably around the 9pm to 12am window.  This could bring another upswing in rainfall, along with lightning at times.  Understand the snow on both mountain passes is not over with and that your morning commute may very well be impacted like it was today.

The main instability axis will move overhead on Thursday.  With the heating of the day, this will bring widespread pop-up thunderstorms to most of Southern California.  The image in this forecast and from the final forecast issued for this storm (click here for that article) is going to come true on Thursday, providing even areas down into San Diego with thunderstorm chances whereas it wasn’t today.

The SCWF Member Section maps remain active for free through just this storm system.  You can click here to see them.  Zoomable maps for rain, flood, snow, and wind are available.

Southern California Weather Force will be closed from March 12th to March 15th.  As stated before, we do have another system between that time so I’ll try to get something out by Friday morning before the office closes for the weekend.  You also can take that time to appreciate the service when you need it and see what it is like without it for a system.

Lightning Strike Map as of 5pm March 10, 2021 – You can compare it to the map above and notice that it is lining up, especially in the LA Metro areas.


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