Mid-level moisture out of Arizona will bring the first shot of monsoonal moisture for summer shower or thunderstorm activity across Southern California and since the dynamics are very tough to pinpoint, I will try the best I can to go into what the atmosphere is going to do so read on for details … oh and I have extended the Summer 2021 discount till June 22nd so everyone has a chance where it will return to monthly afterward until the Fall/Winter/Spring discount so read on below on how to get exclusive email alerts for these articles, flood, thunder, heat, etc alerts you may not see elsewhere …
Temperatures in some basin areas of LA/OC were slightly lower than yesterday. This is due to higher humidity levels from the onshore flow. I’m sure some of you felt the humidity today. Overnight tonight, however, a disturbance coming out of Western Arizona through the Colorado River Valley around midnight or just after will move westward along and north of I-10. Areas along that including the Morongo Basin and Big Bear areas, northwest to the High Desert, and north to Las Vegas’ forecast area will have a chance of light showers or thunderstorms within the elevated instability. The disturbance with the mid-level lift may be strong enough to overcome any lower elevated instability.
Instability will be stronger over the day on Thursday for the ‘red-shaded- zones in the graphic provided. So … As stated in the previous article, (click here) Thursday and Friday would be the peak days for storm activity in the forecast area, in which I put thunderstorm wording.
As for Thursday night into Friday, instability remains a bit strong even or some of the metro areas, minus San Diego. The green-shaded zones on the graphic provided above would be a focus for any shower or thunderstorm that may pop up suddenly over the forecast area. This is all due to leftover elevated instability and increased mid-level moisture.
This was not supposed to be a major monsoon moisture intrusion event by any means, but the dynamics are definitely spread out and this is what would happen given the dynamics for Thursday and Friday.
MEDIUM RANGE: We lose the ridge after the weekend and we get back to our comfortable temperatures with increased onshore flow. Our next chance of monsoonal moisture will start towards the end of the month, or within the 11 day period from this article date.
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