Hurricane Kay’s Dynamics To Impact Southern California By Friday September 9th into the Weekend of The 10th


Tropical Storm Kay will turn into a Hurricane tonight and possibly become a major hurricane through the middle of this week.  She is moving west of Baja, California and will curve westward about 150 miles southwest of San Diego by Friday, close enough to affect a large part of the south part of Southern California from San Diego through Imperial County and the low desert so for details and maps, read on …

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Hurricane Kay will be a fairly large hurricane in terms of diameter.  So as she makes it southwest of San Diego by Friday, a surge (rush) of moisture on the northeastern periphery will move into Southern California from Baja, California as early as Friday for San Diego and Imperial and for the rest of the forecast area through Saturday.

As you can see from the SCWF long range models below, the worst flooding would be San Diego to Imperial County.  Those that complain about no storms in Imperial County and Eastern San Diego County complain about a typical monsoon pattern.  But, this is not a typical pattern and the deep-layer moisture profiles have given a high risk for significant rainfall.

Because it is a tropical system, she’ll be cooler than the 100s we have been seen lately in the metro areas.  We can look at 80s to 90 in the metros by Sunday given the cooler air mass and deeper moisture.  It will be much more humid than it has been however.

Please note that just because you are in a notable or low risk of significant rainfall on the SCWF Models below does not mean you will not see storm cells that cause localized heavy rain during this period.  The model indicates where numerous areas of heavy rain is expected to cover.

The main map does not have visible key colors, it’s a graphic of representation. Magenta is the track I am giving the system, red is the moisture plume’s higher impact, and green is the overall moisture plume I expect.
It will be close enough for San Diego to see near or at tropical depression or tropical storm force winds. She is going to be large in diameter so the winds will extend far.

So monitoring is continue, but the track is solid that she will take the track my models say and the SCWF long range models at this range are not often wrong so if you are in the yellow or higher then prepare for heavy rainfall with the cells that move through during the period stated above.

Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for additional official weather alerts and see the SCWF long range models below …


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