Southern California Weather Force has issued two alerts for portions of the forecast area of responsibility effective Thursday evening through the weekend The two alerts are the Flood Watch and Wind Alert product along with two models to view from with rain amount and wind intensity forecast so read on for details …
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:
A strong storm system will move into the flood watch zone’s SLO region by Thursday evening, spreading east through the SBA/VT/LA zones overnight and into early Friday. Heavy rainfall that will lead to flooding in the burn areas will be highly likely so you should already be having sandbags deployed …
1-2″ of rainfall will be likely within this watch zone, with 3+ inches for the southern slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains east through the elevated Ojai zones …
SAN DIEGO: As previously predicted, you were never in a focus spot so you cannot expect much from this type of storm system. You will not be issued a single alert for this system so no whining that the forecast title etc was ‘wrong’ for you. You know the rules, read my maps and details before implying.
WIND: This system, like my models below show, does have the power to produce damaging winds north and west of Los Angeles, along the main front. The most notable will be the mountain and desert locations, surrounding Wrightwood at level 7, with high levels predicted for the populated areas of the metro High Desert areas around the top of the Cajon Pass, Phelan, Hesperia, Victorville and so on within that corridor of I-15 Thursday evening/night into early Friday …
This system will in no way be the strongest to hit so far in the 2022-2023 season, but it will bring up the rainfall totals for the month of December. The normal rainfall for Downtown Los Angeles in December is 2.48 inches. This should bring it about 50% there.
More rain will hit over the weekend, upping the totals in the flood watch zone
We will have more storm systems throughout the month as we remain above average for the season thus far. This La Nina will be above average in rainfall and below average in temperatures. It so far has been following the previous forecast.
To read the seasonal forecast, Click here.
For the rest of you, use the six panel maps below for the static locations across the SCWF area of responsibility.
Rain Model – VALID THURSDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY – 12-1 TO 12-4-2022
SUPPORTING MEMBERS: Click Here To See The GPS Version Of This Model In Your Member Section Tab.
Wind Model – VALID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY – 12-1 TO 12-2-2022
SUPPORTING MEMBERS: Click Here To See The GPS Version Of This Model In Your Member Section Tab.
Raiden Storm Wind Gust Intensity Scale –
8. Extensive widespread damage.
7. Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over CERTAIN.
6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone. This zone also is the starting zone where trees and powerlines will fall and damage cars and even kill people near or in them!
5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.
4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult.
3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD DURING FIRE WEATHER / WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
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