March 18, 2023 at 9:54 am

Another Strong Storm System Associated with an Atmospheric River Will Hit Southern California Starting Tuesday


We continue the Raiden Storm Pattern this month with yet another long-range forecast follow-up.  This would be the next storm system that will hit the region starting Tuesday and going through Wednesday, bringing more heavy precipitation to most of the Southern California Weather Force jurisdiction zones.  Four alerts have been issued by this office ahead of the system as a result, with a preliminary category of five out of six so read on for details …

Southern California Weather Force has issued a Flood Watch effective Tuesday through Wednesday out ahead of the system.  Heavy rainfall will start west of Los Angeles by Tuesday morning, spreading into the region by the afternoon and evening hours.  Multiple rounds of heavy rain will accompany this system between then, overnight, and into Wednesday.  Given the timing is a bit far away, those details will come in a later period if needed.

As for the snow-level.  Realistically the snow-level will drop to near or at 4,000 FT Tuesday night and into Wednesday.  There are large numbers being put out by various models, but at this time I cannot do a snowfall map with my own model because it is the weakest out of all of them in terms of what it shows for this system.  My guess at this point is my model is showing less moisture above the mountains and that means less snowfall as a result.
Given that, I could realistically go 3-6″ in Big Bear for a start but will not push numbers up until tomorrow or Monday as I continue to monitor those mid-level moisture levels.  Often times, not forecasting the mid-level moisture levels is what makes a snow forecast bust, meaning you’ll forecast more snow than what happens in reality.

High Winds will be in all coastal/valley/mountain/desert zones through the Tuesday/Wednesday period as well.  Watches are out here at Southern California Weather Force as a result.

The last alert will be the Marine Weather Warning.  High waves/swell will accompany this system starting Monday and Peaking Tuesday into the end of the week.  Waves of up to 16 FT will be likely with it, swells over 10-12 FT out of the west.  This will cause beach erosion and damage.

Thunderstorms will be in the cards with this system starting later on Tuesday and going through Wednesday.  There is enough cold air aloft and instability, along with the higher sun-angle during the month of March to warrant monitoring this risk.  Southern California Weather Force does have the capabilities of issuing convective (thunderstorm) watches when needed.

Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for further updates to this system …

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