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Pacific Storm Amelia has been upgraded to a Category Five and she is coming in tonight, with some areas seeing severe thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds, lightning, and tornadoes … your forecast starts now …
Pacific Storm Amelia is still due west of the area as of this evening and she is moving to the east. This type of system digging this far south and being far west of here is exactly what we need to produce numerous thunderstorms across the area.
The Southern California Weather Force Flood Advisory was issued today on the site and the flood risk charts is the reason why. The yellow is low/notable risk, orange moderate risk, and red high risk, and pink extreme risk for flooding.
Amelia will produce very heavy rainfall in the Flood Advisory zone. These were produced this morning custom for our area by me. This shows 10am the system along the San Luis Obispo Coast. By 1pm it was entering Santa Barbara County. As the system starts to hit the southern slopes of the mountain with low level winds, it would bring heavy rainfall in the Santa Barbara, Ventura areas through the evening. By 10pm is when the tilt becomes very strong and thus the system will produce high risk flooding for Eastern Ventura County and the Eastern Los Angeles County Valley/Coastal zones. As the night moves on, the storm will move inland into the Inland Empire areas and because the moisture is so plentiful in the mid and upper levels, heavy rainfall will hit the high desert as well as the Coachella Valley and Morongo Basin.
Now the snow level chart is a new thing in the member section and there are many mountain areas it can show, but this is the San Bernardino Mountains. You’ll notice that when the intensity is heavy within the main front the snow level is 7,300 Feet with wet non-sticking snow at 6,300 FT as per my calculation. This is telling me that upper areas of those mountains will see snowfall above that 7,000 FT mark but Big Bear Lake lies right at the border of wet snow and sticking snow … tapping off over the early morning hours before sunrise to light snowfall and the snow level finally at Big Bear. I do not believe Big Bear Lake will see the heavy snowfall at lake level and that light accumulations would result with this system, especially have a lot of warm air advection.
The Tornado Watch issued on the site is because of the type of system Major Pacific Storm Amelia is. The system is similar to what you’d see east of the Rockies with the trough axis swinging through violently and dewpoints are up to 60 in the watch area. This, with a south/southeast low level wind flow atop a southwesterly mid/upper level wind will cause spin in the atmosphere and when these thunderstorms hit tonight they’ll produce the dynamics for that chance of tornadoes, including land-falling waterspouts as tornadoes on the land. These supercells with tornado dynamics could move inland through the watch area … Orange County is favored as ground zero for the best low level shear, however all of the watch area will have a risk of tornadoes. In addition to the risk of tornadoes, damaging down-burst winds will also be possible .. along with frequent lightning in the strongest cells.
This type of trough depth southward and westward has not been seen in many years so Major Pacific Storm Amelia will be one to remember for those impacted with severe thunderstorms tonight so Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force.com[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_facebook type=”button_count”][/vc_column][/vc_row]