Major Pacific Storm Nikita was assigned a starting point category four system out of the one through six scale here at Southern California Weather Force. The category system is how much damage a system is capable of and what type of dynamics it will have. Because the Thomas Fire areas are now projected to have well over four inches of rainfall with it, I’ve upgraded to Category Five and it will be one of the most dangerous storms in that area in a very long time. Read on for details on what to expect.
I just issued a Flood Watch for areas in the mountains and south and west of there, excluding Kern County at the moment as I’ll touch-base on your over the weekend. These alerts in micro-climate form are issued to various Facebook Groups I have outside the main one. Find yours by clicking here.
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The Flood Watch states; Major Pacific Storm NIKITA is arriving in the forecast area starting on Monday evening for Los Angeles westward through Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County with southerly flow ahead of the main front. The front will bring in extreme values of precipitation for flood risks has brought the system to a Category Five system on the one through six scale.
The main front will come in overnight and finally adding in OC, IE, and San Diego forecast areas after midnight into early Tuesday morning before sunrise with flooding rains … The flood watch zone contains the risk of thunderstorms as well… in-which gusty winds may make it likely for severe thunderstorms to cross the region. 1-3″ of rain in the entire flood watch zone is likely with the Thomas Fire zones have over FOUR INCHES of rainfall …
This flood watch includes all mountain areas below 7,000 FT as it will be all rain on the front … but snowfall at the end of the front with lighter accumulations are possible as the snow level drops to 4,000 – 5000 FT Tuesday morning after sunrise … Additional winter product may be needed to replace this flood watch in the mountains .. but for now the main front has too much warm air advection to have snowfall along it …
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In addition to the Flood Watch I issued a Marine Weather Warning for anyone out in the Southern California waters and bight region … Major Pacific Storm Nikita will impact the bight Monday night through Tuesday, bringing waterspouts, thunderstorms, and damaging wind gusts. Waves will range from 8 to 12 FT, including along the coastal areas for coastal erosion. It is NOT recommended to be out in the waters during this period …
The snow levels with this remain the same as I previously thought, with no change. The snow level will rise as the front approaches the local mountains. This is due to warm air advecting in ahead of it from the south with those strong southerly winds. Snow level will rise to 7,000 and even 8,000 FT in spots along the main swath of precipitation before crashing on Tuesday morning/afternoon to 4,000 to 5,000 FT. The snow level that low with left over showers rotating around the center of the low (which will nearly by overhead on Tuesday) will mean that the mountain communities and resorts will have a shot at snowfall. Being the main dynamics of the front will be well into Arizona at that time … pop-up convective slow moving showers will make convective snow zones hard to predict … so one area may see 4″+ while another city over sees a dusting on Tuesday. My snowfall level/maps in the member section will show this better and will be released and updated on Monday, just before the system hits overnight.
Wind gusts along the front in the metros will be highest along the coast, with 50+ mph winds expected. This, with the chance of thunderstorms does mean that this could have the power to produce severe thunderstorm warnings.
Given the low level shear due to the curvature of the Southern California coast, low level spin in the atmosphere accompanying along and even ahead of the front may be sufficient enough to produce tornado activity. I am continuing to update the member section models everyday on such with maps and info that I can’t put in a regular article being it is too much.
And while it may sound exciting … those of you in the high and low desert will see very little from this … the most being a half inch close to Cajon Summit and weakening as you move north along the 15 from there … with very little in the Imperial/Eastern Desert zones.
Very gusty southerly winds will cause gusty, sometimes damaging winds along the front for the High Desert areas as the mountains of San Bernardino and Los Angeles act as a sloping factor to produce downward wind gusts, opposite of a Santa Ana Wind …
Category Five Conditions will exist mainly along the coast and 15 miles inland … with category three as an average … Category maps will be next …
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