The December 2017 forecast is going as predicted, with so far warmer than normal temperatures during the day and drier than normal conditions. This is the reason for all the wildfires… no rain all season yet. Read on …
As stated in the December 2017 forecast, I did mentioned something after at least the 17th of this month, between then and Christmas. This is still being watched, however the main trough will likely not be offshore for a major storm. My forecast stated that we would still be below average in precipitation this month, regardless of what rainfall we will receive.
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Sometime between the 17th and 23rd, a trough anchored directly over us will bring in cooler than normal temperatures for once, along with the risk of precipitation. The trough average angle is northwest to southeast over the forecast area at the core. This means that if you live in the Los Angeles or Santa Clarita areas you must maintain the possibility that a damaging wind event down I-5 will be a possibility coming up on the dates listed above.
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The rest of the month doesn’t look too ridgy, so it’s possible the trough interaction will continue a shot of precipitation.
Indications are this is now nearing a moderate La Nina, but not cooler as fast. We could be bottoming out for the season, which does indeed resemble the 2005-2006 season. If I remain to be correct.. as we move through January, February, and even March … we will continue to increase in storm activity.
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The wind event will affect all mountain and desert locations as well.. maybe even along the coast with a stronger onshore flow too. (Dec 17-23 time-frame.)