As expected, January would yield our very first strong Pacific Storm system and this system is only 5 days away and closing in. The system will obtain a name and a category officially by Saturday, with a name of Nikita, the start of the list. The system has the potential to bring mudslides to all fire zones, including the record breaking Thomas Fire areas. Read on for details.
The storm system is five days out and is currently crossing the Northern Pacific after having left the Russian Peninsula earlier this week. The system dynamics call for mid to high snow levels along the main frontal zone with snow levels after the front with left-over activity dropping to 4,000 ft – 5000 ft… so I do believe this will bring the first real snow to upper resort locations and some snow below that.
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The system’s lack of Alaskan origin is what is leading me to predict stronger warm air advection. Usually when a system comes from due northwest (not this one), it has a lack of southerly flow from far south of here, which brings snow levels higher as the front approaches. This system is coming in from due west to east, which means it has a strong southerly flow to it and thus immediately along the main lifting dynamics of the strong front, snow levels and temperatures will noticeably rise. More on snow amounts/levels as we near the event and watches get issued by my office.
Rain dynamics are high at the moment, with the model agreement now pushing to 80% chance of 1″ or greater rainfall in Los Angeles early this next week, which makes this higher confidence to me that this will indeed unfold as expected. I’ve gone further out on confidence levels, my longest is 7 days for details within a category 5 system that hit Southern California a few years back. The system has strong southerly flow, which will provide strong lifting along the south facing mountain slopes. This is telling me that the Thomas Fire zones will be having powerful mudslides and if you are in that area, it may look similar to a lahar from an erupting volcano. When a volcano erupts, the ice caps around the mountain melt sometimes and creates a fast moving river downhill. This is what will be expected in the Thomas Fire slope zones so if you are a resident I would prepare now.
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PRO (Premium) Members can check the member section daily for the expected rainfall totals based on my model in the office. A preliminary thunderstorm forecast will also be issued today for members, all updating by the evening. Link to the member section is below.
The system’s west to east orientation also makes it likely that this will be the type of system to bring gusty winds along the frontal zone in almost all sectors of the forecast area. The curvature of the coast of Southern California will also make low level shear possible and with upper divergence in place and a mid level wind to the northeast, I cannot rule out monitoring this system further for the risk of small tornadoes and strong waterspouts.
The system also has the dynamics for thunderstorms within the forecast area.. areas to be determined as we near it.
So that is what I am looking at right now … As we move close to the storm, only 5 days out, updates will be made both in the Facebook Page, Website, App, and Member Section.
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