The first storm system in the Southern California storm list this season is Nikita and so she has been named. She will start at a category four out of six with room to upgrade higher as I near the event with confidence. She has the power to produce coast and metro heavy rain/flooding, gusty, possibly damaging winds, thunderstorms, and even small tornadoes early this next week. Read on more foe details, including how the naming and category system has been working for years here.
The system is currently in the Northern Pacific and is diving down to the southeast with a very powerful upper level jet stream. This system is poised to enter my forecast area on Monday night and provide a very fast, but potent frontal zone through then into early Tuesday morning, with left-over shower/thunderstorm activity in spots through the day on Tuesday.
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The system dynamics at the current time yield at category four or five type system. However, because it is still a bit away I have started it at category four with mention of a room for upgrade. This means that my models project a higher risk than I am starting out with, but that is standard here at Southern California Weather Force. Click Here To Learn About My Category System
First I will note a southerly flow tonight through Saturday bringing in light amounts of precipitation for the Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Kern County zones. So don’t be surprised to see the wet stuff falling even if it isn’t in the forecast elsewhere.
But the main event comes on Monday night through Tuesday morning when a frontal zone approached the Vandenberg/SLO Coast and extends far south from there. The NEW Thunderstorm and Tornado forecast model here in the office is pegging enough dynamics along this front through that period from Vandenberg/SLO through Ventura, Los Angeles, and even Orange County for the risk of waterspouts land-falling as tornadoes and/or small tornadoes developing over the basins. The type of pattern, with a due west to east storm system being far enough south is the current type of pattern for such an event to happen. Confidence remains high in this pattern maintaining …
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The flood risk zones will certainly be along the south facing mountain slopes of the Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara Mountains. The Thomas Fire location will have debris flows similar to lahars from a volcano, as further stated yesterday. If you are in the burn areas of any fires that hit this season; especially the Thomas Fire, then you need to prepare now with sandbags. All those locations should already be doing this.
Wind gusts along the front in the metros will be highest along the coast, with 50+ mph winds expected. This, with the chance of thunderstorms does mean that this could have the power to produce severe thunderstorm warnings.
Given the low level shear due to the curvature of the Southern California coast, low level spin in the atmosphere accompanying along and even ahead of the front may be sufficient enough to produce tornado activity. I am continuing to update the member section models everyday on such .
The snow level will rise as the front approaches the local mountains. This is due to warm air advecting in ahead of it from the south with those strong southerly winds. Snow level will rise to 7,000 and even 8,000 FT in spots along the main swath of precipitation before crashing on Tuesday morning/afternoon to 4,000 to 5,000 FT. The snow level that low with left over showers rotating around the center of the low (which will nearly by overhead on Tuesday) will mean that the mountain communities and resorts will have a shot at snowfall. Being the main dynamics of the front will be well into Arizona at that time … pop-up convective slow moving showers will make convective snow zones hard to predict … so one area may see 4″+ while another city over sees a dusting on Tuesday. My snowfall level/maps in the member section will show this better and will be released and updated on Monday, just before the system hits overnight.
Because the system has strong upper divergence profiles … being a west to east moving system, we will be looking at a number of coast/metro zones seeing some lightning with this.
And while it may sound exciting … those of you in the high and low desert will see very little from this … the most being a half inch close to Cajon Summit and weakening as you move north along the 15 from there … with very little in the Imperial/Eastern Desert zones.
More updates will be given as the system nears the forecast area and/or I upgrade to the next category, which is just one value away from happening.
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