Major Pacific Storm NIKITA remains a Category Five prediction on impact Monday night into Tuesday. She’ll start with light rain for Los Angeles south and eastward overnight tonight and Monday morning, with light to moderate amounts for west of Los Angeles, including the Thomas Fire burn areas. And just to slam credit down, colder storm systems are on the way after January 18th so get the details by reading on …
This project issues names to document systems and keep track of them. Veteran viewers remember storms by the names that way and have referred to them in the comment sections before so it does work. The category system is my own system based off the impacts in our region, designed only for Southern California. SCWF is on track to being a primary source of weather alerts and lead-time
Latest satellite images show a swath of deep-layer moisture coming into the area overnight tonight, starting over Vandenberg Air Force Base before midnight and then the upper forcing affects the rest of the forecast area (minus Imperial County / Eastern Deserts) after midnight and through sunrise on Monday. So for your work commute, expect slick roads out there well ahead of the monster cold front expected on Monday night. This looks similar to when I tornado chase in Great Plains. Just before the front, a surge of upper dynamics ahead of it brings in elevated shower/thunderstorm activity … which might be the case so I wouldn’t rule out some lightning strikes with tonight/Monday morning’s activity.
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SCWF Countdown clocks for various cities will be available to you on Monday afternoon or early evening, just a bit before the main front impacts Vandenberg Air Force Base and San Luis Obispo. But, I do have the Thomas Fire custom countdown clock for the main front.
Frontal Zone Arrival Times For January 9, 2018 – THOMAS FIRE BURN SCAR
Thomas Fire Burn Scar
[wpdevart_countdown text_for_day=”Days” text_for_hour=”Hours” text_for_minut=”Minutes” text_for_second=”Seconds” countdown_end_type=”date” end_date=”9-1-2018 12:00″ start_time=”1479703323″ end_time=”0,1,1″ action_end_time=”show_text” content_position=”left” top_ditance=”10″ bottom_distance=”10″ ]Front Arrived [/wpdevart_countdown]
So moving on. Timing remains the same with it. Timing looks to be set for an impact of the main frontal zone into Vandenberg AFB and San Luis Obispo by 8pm Monday night, Ventura and Kern by 10pm, Los Angeles/OC by 1am and the Inland Empire/San Diego regions by 2-4am Tuesday morning.
The system is continuing to slide southward which each of my model runs just by a bit, around 10 miles each run so this is slowly starting to put Downtown San Diego into the risk for severe thunderstorms so if you’re in that area then continue to monitor your Facebook Group alerts for further information. These alerts in micro-climate form are issued to various Facebook Groups I have outside the main one. Find yours by clicking here.
System dynamics continue to show the power for severe thunderstorms along the main frontal zone on Monday night, with the thunderstorm zone extending to Bakersfield and across the entire Inland Empire areas. On Monday, the final chart for tornado and thunderstorm forecasts will be released in the member section and then the alerts will go out, such as Severe Thunderstorm and/or Tornado Watch or both. As of now I know I’ll need a severe thunderstorm watch in the forecast area and perhaps a tornado watch, but the Inland Empire zones will likely be on the severe thunderstorm end of any watch I issue, not tornado.
I have many alerts issued on the site that just went out today and will go ahead and copy and paste them here.
You may find the alerts and alert map in the member section by clicking here.
Hurricane Wind Speed Warning issued for the PMC/Cuddy Valley/Gorman Pass zones. Major Pacific Storm Nikita will arrive on Monday evening and last into the night for the Gorman Pass to Cuddy Valley/PMC locations. Being the region will have a surface low northwest of Southern California, strong southeast winds sucking into it will work with elevated mountain peaks for mountain wave activity surfacing and wind gusts over 70+ mph will be likely then and thus you need to prepare for both rain and damaging wind gusts over that period, subsiding sunrise Tuesday …
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High Wind Warning issued for the Tehachapi Mountains … Kern Valleys zones. Major Pacific Storm Nikita will arrive on Monday evening and last into the night … Being the region will have a surface low northwest of Southern California, strong southeast winds sucking into it will work with elevated mountain peaks for mountain wave activity surfacing and wind gusts over 30-50 mph will be likely then and thus rain and wind gusts over that period, subsiding sunrise Tuesday …
Flood Advisory issued for the Antelope Valley and Metro High Desert areas. Major Pacific Storm NIKITA hits the coastal/valley zones on Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing over 2-4″ of rain in a short period of time. However, for the Antelope Valley and High Desert regions you will get a weaker, however quick but potent round of rainfall during the time-frame… with lighter rain falling as early as overnight tonight and into Monday morning before a break in the action and the rest comes during Monday night and into Tuesday morning … A good half inch of rain is likely in the High Desert zones and Eastern Antelope Valley areas with an inch possible near the Cajon Pass and the Lancaster areas and maybe an inch and a half in the Neenach areas … In addition to the flood advisory, gusty south winds will accompany the front with 30-50 mph winds likely during that period and 30 mph winds all day on Tuesday after the front with cooler weather … Barstow you’ll get under a half inch of rainfall, thus not in this advisory.
Category values are assigned to certain locations on the map so just because this is a category five system at the center does not mean you will see those conditions.
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This further south track will bring warmer warm air advection into the mountains with snow levels pushing up to 9,000 FT during the main swath of the frontal zone. Easily over 1-2 FT of snowfall for areas at that level and above.. in the upper elevation hiking zones to the peaks. The snow level drops at the end of the front to 6,000 FT so if you’re at that level you may see some flakes falling at the very end of the front before it all shuts off briefly before the snow level drops to 5,000 feet over the day on Tuesday for additional chances of snowfall.
After this system my values show drier weather until after the 18th when a trough value shows up. This value is colder than this system and lacks most of the warm air advection so we may be looking at a more active period for mountain snowfall and thunderstorms in the near future… just remember, you heard it here …
Member section flood risk chart