October 13, 2018 at 8:28 am

WARNING: Damaging Santa Ana Winds Incoming; Predicted Lightning Show Slams Southern California Overnight; Details


You had your warning then and you have your warning now.  What a system that was.  Confidence was high in it happening, a reason all my alerts were out in a timely manner and the system was named Pacific Storm Peter.  It’ll peter out through this evening and leave us with a damaging Santa Ana Wind Event next on the agenda.  Read on for details.

During my October 2018 forecast (click here to read) I stated that this month would be a flip-flop pattern.  The first half would have cooler than normal temperatures for the most part along with cutoff low systems for rainfall across the area.  This has happened and Downtown Los Angeles is near normal for the month.  The forecast of course must reach just over a half inch of rain there to be on my track so that is being monitored.

How is it these events were missed by every single forecaster out there but here is what I am seeing across the site.  Unless you were following Southern California Weather Force then you were surprised on the lightning show, as well as the severe thunderstorm activity in the area.  There were zero warnings of it elsewhere.  Well.. there were warnings when it already was happening.  One thing I really need is for Southern California Weather Force Facebook to grow to 100,000+ people and then it will take over weather alerts from other sources in this region.  Then.. and only then.. will people know when these events are coming.  So help out by sharing the page and of course this article across the internet.  Get them to like this page below.

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Moving on.  On October 10th I released an article labeling the coming system as a ‘Martin Storm Diamond’ system (click here to read).  The Martin Storm Diamond is an imaginary diamond that is southwest of the forecast area. The center of storms that travel through this area have the best upper dynamics in our region, being northeast of the systems themselves. This region is what I look for when diving into confidence that we would see something over our land forecast area of Southern California. This was such a storm.

On the morning of October 12th I followed it up with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (click here to read) covering Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Imperial, and San Diego County, including the Southern half of San Bernardino County.  Even did a nifty video that you can check below.  My alerts were out well in advance so anyone following would have seen it for planning.  The article (click here) even stated flooding would happening under the strongest cells and we have had more than the fair share of it in spots.  Then of course.. the event happened.

On a side note I did issue a lesser impact thunderstorm watch for Ventura and Santa Barbara County.  Lightning detection had some in both counties and offshore.  While it could be considered a flop, the dynamics were there for a watch.

Now what is next?  October 2018 forecast stated that the second half of the month would have a Santa Ana Wind Event.  Well we’re looking at a solid strong Santa Ana Wind Event.   This event will have all the ingredients for a damaging event starting later Sunday night, peaking Monday, and ending Tuesday evening.  The event will have very strong upper, gradient, and thermal support.  We sometimes lack upper support … but this time we will have plenty.  Wind gusts below passes and canyons will be 100 mph or higher and we will have widespread 50+ mph gusts in the prone locations.  This is going to be a prolonged damaging wind event so prepare now.  Santa Ana Wind Warnings will be issued on Sunday for this event.. as well as wind gust models in the member section.

Fire risk assessment will also go out then.  Just because rain fell doesn’t mean there won’t be a fire hazard.  The dry air with this will dry the area out again in spots.

Video of Pacific Storm Peter before he hit –

End article

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