Pacific Storm Warren will enter the forecast area on Monday morning and sweep the first front through over the day. Multiple frontal zones will move across like ripples of waves on a pond through then and Tuesday night, each getting colder. Read on for initial details …
Starting Warren off as a category two system. The system will affect San Luis Obispo and Vandeberg by morning. I’ve issued a Tornado Advisory for San Luis Obispo for thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado and also Vandenberg/Lompoc region for non-thunderstorm producing waterspouts to a weak tornado. Given what happened last night it looks nearly the same. Read as followed;
A cold-front will make its way into the San Luis Obispo zones after 3am Monday morning. This bring strong lifting along the front and with added instability will be enough for thunderstorms to form. However, Thunderstorms will be reserved for San Luis Obispo County. The NEW SCWF Tornado and Thunderstorm Forecast model now has a new value for non-thunderstorm producing waterspouts to small tornadoes. This value is ‘magenta’. The ‘Thunderstorm’ value with tornado dynamics is a darker blue value on the model. The thunderstorm colors remain the same. You can see that below. Based off some weak shear in the area, non-thunderstorm and thunderstorm producing weak tornadoes and waterspouts will be likely between 3am and 8am Monday morning. Thunderstorm dynamics should not reach the Vandenberg/Lompoc regions, however non-thunderstorm producing tornado dynamics will. Thus.. i have put the area under a Tornado Advisory for both, using this wording as your forecast to know who would see what.
Link – https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2019/02/03/tornado-advisory/
Link – https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2019/02/03/flood-advisory-21/
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