Major Pacific Storm Gavin is a category five out of six system. It will deliver heavy rainfall and numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and then again on Thursday to parts of Southern California. It has prompted me to issue the SCWF Tornado Watch for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara so read on for details …
The Flood Watch remains intact for all areas south and west of the mountains.
MAJOR PACIFIC STORM GAVIN ARRIVAL
Major Pacific Storm Gavin will impact overnight tonight, but maximize on Tuesday and then yet again on Thursday. The tornado dynamics with the system are for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara. The Tornado Watch was issued ahead of time and it reads; The SCWF Tornado Dynamics Model is indicating a small section of tornado dynamics in Southern California with the arrival of the thunderstorm dynamics later Tuesday morning through the afternoon/evening hours. Storms coming in from the south after the swath of rainfall will have a dryslot following them. This will be enough to provide the focal point of convergence in the Tornado Watch area and thunderstorms will hit.
This area will have excessive lightning and hail with the strongest storms, as well as gusty winds. With the southeast flow at the surface accompanying the storms, low-level shear will be maximized and the risk of weak tornadoes will be likely.
Remember, as with many events forecast here at Southern California Weather Force, tornadoes seldom are reported unless someone is looking for them .. or there is damage. Remember the Ventura and Santa Barbara Tornado Watch I issued this season with one of the storm systems? No other source called for such and it did damage in the Ventura Harbor. That is the only way one would have known. Many tornadoes go without a report here, but given I have the radar technology to spot the tornado tracks, confirming them is easier and this will be so on your Tuesday in the Tornado Watch area.
In addition to the watch, flood risk is elevated for heavy downpours in a short period of time … Here is the SCWF Tornado Dynamics Model For Tuesday, outlining the areas for this chance, the best chance from Santa Barbara to around Santa Monica or so.
The rare Excessive Lightning Warning has also been issued surrounding this tornado watch. It is for areas in the tornado watch, as well as San Luis Obispo County to Vandenberg. It reads; A very strong Pacific Storm system will move through the area on Tuesday and last into Tuesday night. The SCWF Lightning Prediction Model is clearly painting the entire warning area in numerous lightning strikes, signalling that no matter where you are in the warning zone, you will hear the thunder and see the lightning.
Storms within this can be severe at times, owning to strong winds and some hail … The Tornado Watch issued here at SCWF is for the Southern Coastal zones (Red color) – Click Here to view that if you have not –
As for the rest of the forecast area. This is a complex split atmospheric river system. We will see the warm-front lift through San Diego overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. It will lift through the low deserts as well as the Inland Empire, Orange, and Los Angeles areas. There will be a chance of thunderstorms in these areas early Tuesday morning as well, mainly San Diego County north to ‘parts’ of the Inland Empire zones.
There will be a break on Wednesday with very widely isolated hit and miss showers in the area due to the dry-slot part of the storm system. Monitoring will be that day for Thursday’s event. On Thursday, the low pressure center will re-develop south of our forecast area and this may bring an easterly flow into the region. This east and southeast flow may bring thunderstorms back into the area, especially the Imperial County/Low Desert areas. This is still a bit far away, but trends will be monitor for it. This would bring Imperial County the worst of the system.
Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force on the FB micro-climate groups, the notification system e-mail/app offered to subscribers, or the Facebook Pages for updated information on Major Pacific Storm Gavin. The rain models are below, valid Tuesday into Wednesday, but NOT Thursday … Thursday will have its very own article update.
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