Major Pacific Storm Gavin Weakens On Wednesday But Eyes To Punish The Eastern Half Of Southern California On Thursday


A very successful day so far with all convective watches having severe weather within them.  Below you will find an update and radar images from cells moving through the various thunderstorm/tornado watch zones.  Dynamics were very favorable today and one would have to be on notice for them to see them so read on for details.

First I’ll start off with Kern County. Many of you are messaging me about a warning for a tornado up there.  As per the Thunderstorm Watch (Click Here) issued yesterday, it stated it would be possible in an isolated area up there.  It is not a surprise to me.  Isolated zones just don’t receive a tornado watch here at Southern California Weather Force.  The quoted forecast was “A strong Pacific Storm will move in on Tuesday and last through Tuesday night in the Kern Valley areas.  All of Kern County from Valley/Mountain/Desert regions over the day on Tuesday will have stronger instability … being in the northeast quadrant of the system, thunderstorms are expected to break out, with small hail and gusty winds as well as funnel clouds.. maybe a small tornado.. but dynamics are isolated.  Flooding is likely in some spots, especially under any thunderstorms. 

Next I’ll move to the Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Tornado Watch area.  This area had a number of suspects as per the SCWF tornado detection radar.  The images are below.  You can usually see a tornado track on the image radar based off the ‘tire track’ streak look across the landscape.  Many small tornadoes go without a report in Southern California because no one is looking for them… thinking we do not get them.  The radar images below shows where weak spin-ups occurred.

The Excessive Lightning Warning yielded great results today.  The center of it was Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County.  This lightning detection satellite stitched together shows from this morning to this evening the lightning strikes and numerous counts were in the Excessive Lightning Warning zone, again a verified forecast call.

As for the rest of this system.  Major Pacific Storm GAVIN is not done yet.  Remember what I said in the previous updates?  The system will die off on Wednesday for the most part and re-organize on Thursday.  This system will impact us and the current Flood Watches for VT/LA/OC/San Diego County and the Antelope Valley/High Desert zones looks good right now.  The one I just issued though is now official and includes Imperial County, the Riverside Deserts, and the Morongo Basin, as well as the entire Colorado River Valley for Thursday.  This watch goes as far north as Las Vegas, the end of the forecast map jurisdiction zone (Click Here To View It).  Thursday will contain the most thunderstorms from Ventura County south and eastward.  I will say that this is acting like the monsoonal zone locations so the closer you are to the low deserts the more chances you’ll get the thunderstorms.  I do see the Inland Empire in this as well.  I will address this as we near Thursday.

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