Today is Thursday and the clouds are streaming overhead as noted through this morning. Showers are south of the area and moving toward the region and the moisture will move through starting today and going through the weekend and even next week most likely. The showers however, will be higher up, while below passes and canyons need to get ready for Santa Ana Winds so read on for details on what this double atmospheric system has including a brief outlook for the next chance of an actual storm pattern …
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The cutoff pattern is an interesting one. Not in the fact that you’ll see storms up the ying-yang but more of a scientific aspect. This rare pattern I will be studying for years to come is going to be neat. First I need to talk about the shower chance. We have to look at all levels of the atmosphere to figure where they will fall. What I do see is a lot of mid-upper level moisture. This means that it will be raining up there at 10,000 FT. But, due to the dry offshore Santa Ana Wind flow that will develop on FRIDAY into the WEEKEND, this will dry the lower levels out and make it rare to impossible for rain to reach the lower coastal/basin/valley areas. This means that the higher you are in the mountains, the better chances of any rain to reach the ground. I hope that makes sense so that none of you say “where is the rain?” and you don’t live in the upper mountain locations. I’ll just remove such a comment since you don’t read these correctly. Moving on …
Southern California Weather Force has officially issued the Santa Ana Wind Watch that will turn to advisory/warning depending on overall coming strength of them. This is for Friday into the weekend, mainly Friday into Saturday. At the same time the mid-upper moisture is in the area out of the south, circling the cutoff low, a surface low directly under it would suck in reverse flow from the deserts and bring the Santa Ana Winds. It does have potential to be a strong event, also bringing in the winds for the Riverside/San Diego Mountain/Foothill zones as this would also be an east wind so areas like Anza/Aguanga and especially Ramona.
This will all be monitored. I don’t think I have to adjust the higher level precipitation forecast, but I will need to update on the final Santa Ana Wind forecast, including the wind models I will produce on Friday morning. But, for now, if in a known Santa Ana Wind area, take your precautions you usually take to prepare for them.
So long story short – The thing is, Santa Ana Winds dry the low levels out unless the cell is strong enough to have rain reach the ground. I’d say some of the coast COULD see some sprinkles as long as they do not have the winds. It’s a complicated atmosphere that is moving over through this period… but 3k I think you could see something, but don’t expect much. I could see the storm pattern being more possible after the 24th of so when we get rid of the ridging to the west.
LONG RANGE: We start to see the Pacific become a bit more active after say January 24-25. This is when our best shot of actual storm activity to help bring January’s rainfall totals up some. So, if you don’t have your roof done by then, you may be out of luck. You have your outlook for the long range. It’s the best shot we have this month.
REMEMBER: The article from two days ago has HIT AND MISS showers today. The Santa Ana Winds are NOT in until tomorrow so the low levels are not as dry now as they will be then … Refer to this update from yesterday – https://www.facebook.com/scweatherforce/photos/a.1581105165496933/3046887352252033/
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