Southern California Weather Force has upgraded the El Nino Advisory (Reference B below) to an official El Nino Warning for the 2023-2024 storm season across Southern California as a Strong El Nino will be present.

Back on April 13, 2023, here at Southern California an El Nino Watch was issued (Reference A below).  This showed the long-range graphical model representation of the progress of the expected forecast.  We are right on track as the Equatorial Pacific has no colder spots within it and El Nino has formed as expected.

This development will continue as we move through Fall and dwindle in the Spring, with another La Nina forming by the summer of 2024.  La Nina seems to be the dominant of the two lately.

What can be expected will be more tropical systems this month and next curving north towards the area, providing windows of storm activity.  As September moves around, cutoff lows will be the story right on into October, where around Halloween we will have the systems caused by El Nino start.

I have yet to issue the long range on what years this will be like, but a strong El Nino would signal 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 as the contenders.  I will figure this one out when the time comes, a couple months from now.

Reference A – https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2023/04/13/el-nino-watch-issued-developing-warm-water-conditions-fast-developing-at-the-equator-with-strong-el-nino-projected/

Reference B – https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2023/05/24/el-nino-advisory-issued-warm-water-conditions-at-the-equator-with-strong-el-nino-projected/

Master General Meteorologist – Raiden Storm

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