Long Range Weather Advisory Update: Southern California Metro Storm Risk Upgraded To High Risk


Southern California Weather Force has upgraded the category status of the coming system with a narrowed window from November 14th to 18th to November 15th and 16th, with an upgrade from category three to four with room for upgrade.

Back on November 5th, the official long range weather advisory was issued here at Southern California Weather Force.  (See reference A below).  This advisory was then backed up by an update on November 7th, giving a preliminary initial category of three out of six (See reference B below).  This has now been upgraded for the metros with a high-risk category four system on November 15th and 16th.

A storm system will bring a pineapple express to California, with Southern California being on the tail-end Charlie section of it, starting November 15th.  This southerly flow will keep snow-levels high, so do not expect mountain snow with it.  We will have to wait till colder systems of December through March move in for snowfall to fall.

As you can see from the latest risk assessment model here at Southern California Weather Force, the high risk extends for the following areas: Kern, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange County, and the Inland Empire areas.  This would be a classic low-level southerly flow that will utilize the southern slopes of the mountains, what is known as orographic lifting.  Flood Watches will no doubt need to be issued here when the time comes.

The metro zones will also have gusty winds with this system during those days, along the frontal zone.  This will bring trees down in spots, so it is best to make sure the trees around you are not of any danger of falling over.

Southern California Weather Force will continue to monitor this pattern in what is known as a Raiden Storm Pattern, a pattern called in the long range before any other sources or apps saw it.

Reference A – https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2023/11/05/long-range-weather-advisory-first-pacific-storm-of-the-season-for-southern-california/

Reference B – https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2023/11/07/preliminary-storm-risk-assessment-category-three-to-start-issued-for-november-14th-to-18th/

Master General Meteorologist – Raiden Storm

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