November 3, 2015 at 11:10 am

Forecast: Thunderstorms, Rain, Mountain Snow Through This Evening; Where?

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Thunderstorms, rain, and mountain snow are due to develop across the forecast region through this afternoon and evening, into some of tonight.  Out of a clear blue sky will come the weather event but find out if your area will get anything by reading on and watching the video.

Convective atmosphere today where there is no solid front like yesterday.  This means that pop-up hit and miss shower/thunderstorm activity is expected.  Last night I issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Mountains above 6,000 feet.  The snow level is 6,000 feet today so convective showers forming in those mountain ranges would drop snowfall.  Due to the general low level flow and lifting dynamics, the San Bernardino Mountains will see the most snowfall out of the three ranges, with an additional 3+” at the resorts.  The LA/RIV Ranges will be rather hit and miss, or light …

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Flurries are possible 6,000 feet up for the Kern Mountains as well … with convective showers in the inner Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County zones later on.  No alerts will be needed, just this wording.

Two areas of thunderstorms that will be watched today.  The first area is the largest populated area, which is the LA/OC/IE/SD forecast regions.  Storm motion and flow indicates that isolated activity of hit and miss variety will hit the Eastern VT zones, east through the LA/OC/IE areas.  Thunderstorm Watches are taking care of these areas.  The strongest, most widespread zone will be in the San Diego County area.  As stated in yesterday’s Special Weather Statement issued, Thunderstorms would be more numerous in this county through this evening and night.  A solid west to east flow will work with the local convergence zones to pop thunderstorms across those areas … and these would hit the San Diego Metro areas as well.  The Special Weather Statement was upgraded to a Thunderstorm Watch as a result this morning and it stands.Night lightning is likely in those areas.

The secondary area would be the high desert zones.  Convergence in the Victor Valley areas along the I-15 zones would bring pop-up activity  … but the strongest activity would be in the Ridgecrest forecast area, surrounding it by 50 miles.

Thunderstorms today in all areas could contain hail, funnel clouds, torrential downpours that can lead to flooding, and bursts of heavy mountain snowfall.  Offshore they’ll produce waterspouts so get your cameras out.

On Wednesday, thunderstorm activity is possible in the San Bernardino Deserts east of Barstow into the Needles, California forecast region … will monitor and update accordingly.

After all this, offshore flow and warming to begin by the end of the week.

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