Mid-Month Arctic Storm Pattern Start Visible In Medium Range For Southern California


It It has been a warm and dry half of January and now start of February, but as the January 20th article stated about February with a final forecast for it at the end of the month, by Mid-February we would see signs of a change… and a couple systems are indeed now being monitored so read on for details.

Given what I can see in the Northern Pacific the ridge is about to shove westward toward Alaska.  This shove will allow for the colder air to spill down on the eastern periphery for the West Coast, including here in Southern California.  The SCWF Member Section has been hinting at this with the ‘trend model’ showing precipitation on the increase in the longer range.  Such systems like this can deliver colder than normal temperatures through their respected windows … along with lower elevation snowfall (High Desert to Las Vegas) … and the risk of thunderstorms.  Systems like this favor impacts for Los Angeles eastward instead of westward, but don’t worry Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Kern County … you’re still being watched by me in-case of a shift.

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The window timing of this will be sometime this weekend as the start, with two back to back impulses.  A bit tough to say where the first one will end up … but the first one could be right on-top of Southern California out of due north, which will put snow in some High Desert and Las Vegas areas … or it would shift east and bring drier weather.  The second one is the one I am watching more with consistency as it marks the ‘mid-month’ time-frame I have been speaking about since last month.  This would would come further west and deliver better storm dynamics to our region.

This ridge does not look to rebuild as strong as it did these last couple of weeks for the fore-see able 14-21 day period … and as such monitoring for the troughs to form to bring us more chances of rainfall will be in the offering.

So with that said, members can continue to monitor the alerts given, one such for surf on west facing beaches this week, and continue to see updated models of upcoming precipitation chances.. .as well as that daily forecast discussion.

This is the end of the FREE public storm pattern article … a reminder on micro-climate alerts, models, discussions, etc below this –


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