The next name on the list is RIPPER and Pacific Storm Ripper has been given a starting category of three, with room for upgrade. The system is due mostly on Wednesday into Thursday and is indeed a Martin Storm Diamond crossing event so read on for details on who gets what …
Pacific Storm RIPPER will affect the San Luis Obispo areas as early as Tuesday, pushing later on in the day/evening into Santa Barbara County and eventually into Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, and the Inland Empire regions by Wednesday. Due to the surface low being what is called an undercutting slider, the least rain will fall across Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Kern County.
The system is generating the Southern California Weather Force Wind Advisory and is active starting later today and goes through Thursday. A surface low that of which is Pacific Storm RIPPER will rapidly develop later today out in the Pacific. The wind will start sucking into it from the southeast, thus opening up the west slope mountain passes of the Kern County Mountains, including Gorman. The wind gusts in the valleys may reach over 30 mph, while the Gorman to BVS regions of the passes reach over 50 mph, which would technically be a High Wind Warning. Wind gusts will continue through Thursday. SOME rain is expected, with more in the mountains and much less in the Bakersfield zones.
Pacific Storm Ripper has generated the Southern California Weather Force Flood Watch and is active Wednesday into Thursday. Pacific Storm RIPPER will bring two rounds of precipitation to the region, one on Wednesday along the warm conveyor belt ahead of the main surface low and then another on Thursday. This surface low is known as an undercutting slider, which means it’ll move southwest of the forecast area and then into Baja, Mexico. This pattern provides the most rainfall near the coast from Long Beach to San Diego. Unlike the last system, San Diego will stand to see the best dynamics from RIPPER as he rips on through. This flood watch means that conditions will be favorable for shower and thunderstorm activity to provide the area with flooding potential from short duration heavy rainfall bursts.
Catalina and San Clemente Island have been included as well because they will get the most rain out of the region due to the surface low trajectory. The least amount of rain from 0.5 to 1.0″ will fall in Oxnard and Ventura. Surf is expected to be low on the coasts due to the southeast flow along the coast, but Point Mugu and Malibu could see brief high waves being you have the southern facing coast. Full SCWF Members can see the updated ‘rain model pattern outline’ for this system by going to the member section link below.
The system is going to move through the Martin Storm Diamond on Thursday. The Martin Storm Diamond is a diamond-shaped area southwest of Southern California that when the center of a low pressure system crosses it, it brings the best chance of widespread thunderstorms to our region. The diamond would mostly affect the areas within the SCWF Flood Watch area.
Snow levels will vary, but median between 6,500 and 7,000 FT through the duration of the system. However.. since this is an undercutting system I do not expect much with it due to the best dynamics being in the metro/coast/valley areas more-so than the desert areas.
Undercutting systems also have less wind dynamics in the nominal high and low desert areas. The only areas seeing gusty winds will be along the coastal zones and in Kern County, excluding the deserts.
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