Arctic Storm Prompts Santa Ana Wind Watch Below Passes And Canyons, Mountains Included As System Makes Glancing Blow East of California


In tracking the system as stated previous, I decided that the storm does not have the means to snap back southwest and that only drizzle/light rain will happen on Sunday in parts of LA, OC, San Diego and the Inland Empire.  This leaves it with a Santa Ana Wind Event on Monday, with another onshore event on Sunday so read on for details on your zone, including another look into November 2020.

I was running the forecast pie model for this system this morning.  I noted that the pie model was highly against a stronger system entering our region.  I figure the cutoff west of here being the main player would not attach on time to bring it down, instead having this go east into Arizona.  Now, the previous article mentioned such a chance and a reason the forecast highlighted wind instead of a storm.  The confidence just is not there at this time and likely will never be.  I however did issue the official Santa Ana Wind Warning over the micro-climate email alert premium system at 10:30 this morning.  That can be seen by Clicking Here – and also has the wind intensity models for various areas within the alert itself.

This afternoon, just before I released this to the public, I issued a Wind Advisory for the Tehachapi Mountains … Edwards AFB … Antelope Valley … Metro High Desert … Whitewater in the Banning Pass … Riverside Mountains … San Diego Mountain/Desert … Imperial Count areas, effective on Sunday as the onshore flow produced by the arctic system in the Great Basin develops.  The wind intensity models can be viewed in the alert by Clicking Here.

Arizona will see more of this system and I’ve released their article already at Arizona Weather Force and if interested you can Click Here.

With any case, I’d like to showcase the SCWF pie model for the Ontario area that produced this decision for me, even if this is an inside slider.  As you can see below, the pie-chart for rainfall through Tuesday clearly favored a trace, which is probably the Sunday onshore flow in the region.  It does not favor any larger rainfall numbers.

Preliminary for November 2020.  As I stated for the October 2020 forecast at the beginning of the month, it will not feature a lot, if any precipitation.  The pie-chart was updated below to show you that November is looking better.  The chart below is for where we measure rainfall for a month, Downtown Los Angeles.  It shows a nice chunk of 1″ of rain… but not a slam dunk.  Normal for the month is just over an inch.  We can see if December follows to finish the Fall 2020 season off.  The 2020-2021 Winter Forecast will be out this next week … and it remains the same as before if you’ve been following.

So that is.  I’ll continue to monitor the system for any changes to the forecast, but this is how it stands.

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