A major storm system is still on tap for Southern California. My initial assigning of the category for it was a major storm or category four with room to five. As it gets closer, more details will be resolved and one such has brought me to upgrade the system to a Category Five out of the one through six scale. A category five is centering the LA/OC areas and this same system will cause a tornado outbreak in the Southern Plains and Deep South Tuesday into Wednesday so read on for details …
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:
This is the outlook for thunderstorms based on the current storm dynamics. The frontal zone will start moving through on Monday early morning through the Santa Barbara/Ventura areas. As the first front moves through and the Sun starts to rise, the front will enter the Los Angeles areas. Most of the time these happen at night for the winter months, lessening instability. However, I am leaning firmly into the first front having the chance of thunderstorms as well and with the Sun up, it will strengthen in these areas and produce the chance of lightning. Now this front is not the focus for the lightning, but it is a focus for low-level shear in the ‘high risk’ area on the map that has the power to produce strong waterspouts that would landfall as tornadoes as does the second front later on.
As the day moves along through the afternoon/evening hours, the second and third front will be where the colder air aloft will be. This is also where the strongest upper dynamics are near the center of the low pressure system. Santa Barbara through LA/OC will have the later afternoon into the evening hours with these while the Inland Empire and San Diego have the later evening/night hours. The instability factor with this time-frame is the strongest in the Los Angeles/Orange County area, centering the Los Angeles Basin as further mentioned in the articles before this one, which links are below so you get a follow up and more information on this forecast, including the SCWF Flood Watch zones. The instability present will also make for the hail within the thunderstorms to be larger than we are use to. There is the chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as a result, and I will issue that when needed.
Given this, we do have a very good chance in the stronger risk areas to have a light-show Monday night …
A separate area of thunderstorms later Monday has been added from Baker, along I-15 through Las Vegas and into the Needles forecast areas. I’ve decided that the instability and upper divergence (lift) with this storm is good enough for thunderstorms to form in those areas as well as the Kern Valley areas.
Overall, category five conditions have been issued due to the flooding, 30-40 mph wind gusts along the fronts, waterspout/tornado scenario, and frequent lightning with larger hail. Category Five systems here at Southern California Weather Force rarely have thunderstorms and often come with damaging winds and major flooding … so having the main threat being thunderstorms within the category five (LA/OC) areas is very rare and has not happened in many years here. The last category five had very little lightning, but it did have damaging winds and major flooding, which I believe was a system last December.
LONG RANGE: After this, we do not look to be done yet. The active jet stream looks to be in place for yet another system around April 5th. Strength and track unknown at the moment, but values indicate a system moving into the state then.
TORNADO OUTBREAK: As many of you may or may not know, I have a NATIONAL page for areas outside of Southern California and Arizona. This page can be found by CLICKING HERE. This same system will move east and cause a tornado outbreak Tuesday for Oklahoma/Texas and by Wednesday it’ll slam Mississippi and Alabama. If you have family there, direct them to the page I said to click because articles will be issued very soon over that alert system.
The following articles pertained to the analysis and prediction of this forecast …
March 18, 2022 – The initial prediction for the date in the long range section
FINAL FORECAST: Cold Inside Slider To Move Through Southern California This Weekend; Rain, Snow, Wind Models; Hit and Miss Expected
March 24, 2022 – The Thunderstorm wording Along With Issuing a Category Four
Strong Storm System Eyes Southern California Monday; Possibly Major Pacific Storm Status; Second Outlook
March 25, 2022 – The Official Flood Watch Issued
March 25, 2022 – Numerous Thunderstorms Projected
Numerous Thunderstorms Certain To Hit Southern California Metros On Monday March 28, 2022; Flood Watch Issued
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Southern California Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 1999 off and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the region, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Southern California Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”